Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 34.809739 37.634301 40.713180 44.343365 48.539461 53.278584 59.096063
2025-05-04 30.883924 34.687563 39.114799 44.738771 51.831181 60.683559 72.927958
2025-05-11 28.131529 32.350636 37.469685 44.302116 53.460316 65.776156 84.536120
2025-05-18 25.977571 30.383720 35.893937 43.527284 54.259043 69.602727 95.038623
2025-05-25 24.237694 28.724133 34.469825 42.671692 54.669302 72.757119 105.163131
2025-06-01 22.857770 27.390186 33.313218 41.990930 55.140793 75.960013 116.191135
2025-06-08 21.534753 26.023882 31.982321 40.891465 54.779226 77.673988 124.921315
2025-06-15 21.159856 25.885745 32.302576 42.192155 58.287622 86.574203 151.773788
2025-06-22 20.390444 25.151187 31.715984 42.048136 59.387376 91.334051 171.709915
2025-06-29 19.544425 24.258429 30.835574 41.355880 59.441081 94.060255 187.943019
2025-07-06 18.642445 23.240821 29.710219 40.178532 58.491490 94.555616 198.232374
2025-07-13 18.453182 23.218866 30.042870 41.362554 61.936725 105.136807 248.176161
2025-07-20 18.174648 23.067308 30.190511 42.291310 65.129225 116.355923 315.755399
2025-07-27 17.772968 22.715915 30.010298 42.648243 67.272571 125.824658 393.281348
2025-08-03 17.229918 22.128520 29.425640 42.244401 67.797708 131.244678 461.764707
2025-08-10 16.658039 21.473401 28.698496 41.527651 67.565095 134.514116 526.125745
2025-08-17 16.108857 20.830947 27.959861 40.735466 67.072110 136.928190 593.798650
2025-08-24 15.628761 20.275093 27.333946 40.104602 66.862162 140.220542 686.205676
2025-08-31 15.097135 19.623199 26.525444 39.084678 65.661529 140.038270 743.791702
2025-09-07 15.042995 19.696571 26.896680 40.291129 69.759060 159.411318 1267.303946
2025-09-14 14.731904 19.361486 26.577827 40.157634 70.655218 167.835896 1790.421408
2025-09-21 14.342705 18.892446 26.016178 39.515653 70.219151 170.954949 2285.564697
2025-09-28 13.889252 18.310842 25.245765 38.422626 68.538879 168.481327 2488.116673